Counties divided

The 50 states of the US are each further divided into counties. Based on the 2024 United States presidential election results, there are 3,143 counties (and county equivalents) in the US. In the 2024 election, 2,980 of these counties were won by a candidate with a margin exceeding 15%.

Solid Republican Counties: 2,559 counties voted for Donald Trump with a margin greater than 15% (many by margins exceeding 30% or even 50%)

Solid Democratic Counties: 421 counties voted for Kamala Harris with a margin greater than 15% (including districts like Washington D.C. and highly urbanized counties)

This leaves only 163 counties where the margin of victory was 15% or less. These are typically referred to as “battleground” or “swing” counties, where the race was too close to call by that threshold. The remaining counties (132) in the analysis voted for different parties in consecutive elections but still generally had margins that were either very close or flipped, but the specific count of counties with a margin under 15% is derived from the total (3,143) minus the solid ones (2,980).

The 2024 election saw a significant shift toward Donald Trump, increasing the number of counties where he won by large margins compared to previous cycles, while the number of counties won by Democrats by large margins remained relatively stable or slightly decreased in some swing states

The fact that only 163 out of 3,143 counties (about 5.2%) had a margin of victory of 15% or less in the 2024 US presidential election is historically uncommon and reflects a deeply polarized electorate.

Recent elections

To understand how unusual this is, let’s look at recent elections where the margin was below 15%, going back one generation.

It shows a steady decline in competitive counties.

The number of “battleground” counties (margin ≤ 15%) has been steadily shrinking for decades. In 2008, over 11% of counties were competitive; by 2024, that number dropped to just over 5%.

2024 Was the Most Polarized: The 2024 election saw the lowest percentage of competitive counties in modern U.S. history, indicating that the electorate has become increasingly sorted along geographic and ideological lines.

Geographic Sorting: This trend reflects urban-rural divides and political polarization. Most competitive counties are now concentrated in a handful of swing states (like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia), while the vast majority of counties are “safe” for one party.

Historical Context

In the 1960s and 1970s, many counties were genuinely competitive, with margins often under 10% even in non-swing states. The 1980s and 1990s saw the beginning of regional sorting (e.g., the “Solid South” for Republicans, strong Democratic lean in urban areas).

By the 2000s, the number of competitive counties began to drop more sharply. The 2024 election represents the extreme end of this trend.

Partisan Sorting: Voters have increasingly sorted themselves into communities that align with their political views.

Gerrymandering and District manipulations: While this affects congressional and state legislative maps, it also reinforces the perception of “safe” counties for presidential voting.

Media and Information Ecosystems: Different media diets for urban vs. rural voters have deepened ideological divides.

Cultural Polarization: Issues like gun rights, abortion, immigration, gender and climate change have become more polarized, making compromise harder.

The 2024 election’s 5.2% competitive county rate is unprecedented in modern US history. It highlights a political landscape where most Americans live in counties that are overwhelmingly one-party, leaving only a small fraction of the country to decide presidential outcomes. This trend is likely to continue unless there are significant shifts in voter behavior, demographic changes, or political realignments.

A sharp divide

The sharp divide in the 2024 US presidential election stems from a convergence of economic anxiety, cultural identity, and existential questions about democracy. Unlike previous decades where parties might have disagreed on policy details but shared a baseline of democratic norms, the current polarization is characterized by fundamentally different worldviews regarding the role of government, the nature of truth, and the definition of American identity.

Republicans see a country in decline due to immigration, inflation, and a loss of traditional values, believing Trump is the only one who can restore order.

Democrats see a country under threat from authoritarianism, the erosion of rights, and systemic inequality, believing Harris will protect democracy and progress.

This creates a scenario where one side votes to “save democracy” while the other votes to “fix a broken system,” making compromise nearly impossible. Additionally there’s a stark gender and generational gap, with younger women and suburban voters increasingly driven to the polls by abortion rights, while rural and older voters remain less motivated by it.

It appears the debate has shifted from a policy debate to a cultural one, with Republicans framing it as a crisis of national sovereignty and Democrats framing it as a humanitarian and legal challenge.

Then there is a deep disagreement on the role of law enforcement and the causes of social disorder, with Republicans emphasizing order and Democrats emphasizing systemic reform. Both ties this to a cultural identity, with Democrats emphasizing systemic racism and Republicans emphasizing individual responsibility and national unity.

Competing realities

The 2024 election highlights that the US is no longer just divided by policy preferences (e.g., tax rates or healthcare plans) but by competing realities.

Republicans see a country in decline due to immigration, inflation, and a loss of traditional values, believing Trump is the only one who can restore order

Democrats see a country under threat from authoritarianism, the erosion of rights, and systemic inequality, believing Harris is the only one who can protect democracy and progress

This fundamental disagreement on the state of the nation and the direction of the country is what has led to the extreme geographic sorting and the scarcity of competitive counties.